As we enter into the final three weeks of the 2024 football season, that means it’s time to start talking postseason.
And with playoff season nearly here, we wanted to go ahead and get the discussion started with an early look at where local teams will finish in their respective regions.
A lot of things are going to happen between now and the final snap of week 10. There's a lot of teams who have "unofficially" locked in to the playoffs already. But by week 9, things will begin to become more clearer and it will become more official.
If you would like read up on how the OHSAA's Harbin Computer Rankings System works, click here.
Our panel of high school football contributors have listed what we project to unfold over the course of the final weeks of the regular season. And for added measure, we have added a key game for each team that could make or break their postseason plans.
Teams are listed according to the current standings in the region, based on Joe Eitel's website. Our panel has taken the top 16 teams and other teams who may still have a chance at playoff spot and listed a projected a final number, a final seed, and a key game for each team.
(1) Fairland Dragons
Current Record: 7-0
Projected Final Record: 9-1
Projected Final Harbin Number: 23.8916
Projected Finish:
Key Game: vs. Ironton (Oct. 11)
The Dragons should manage to clinch the OVC title and a get a first round home game. But before they can think about that, they have to face Ironton at the “Concrete Place” in what should be a good late-season measuring stick game for the Dragons. Ironton will be the clear favorites in this one. A win would bring in a truck load of computer points and a guaranteed top 4 finish.
(2) Harvest Prep Warriors
Current Record: 5-1
Projected Final Record: 7-2
Projected Final Harbin Number: 22.2015
Projected Finish:
Key Game: at Cincinnati LaSalle (Oct. 18)
Prep will be coming off a bye week as they head down the stretch. They have two games where they should be heavy favorites against KIPP Columbus and St. Vincent-St. Mary’s. But their week 9 match up against a tough Division II LaSalle team will be a major test ahead of postseason play. A win over LaSalle would give Prep a projected final average of 27.8120 and secure the No. 2 seed.
(3) Columbus Academy Vikings
Current Record: 6-0
Projected Final Record: 10-0
Projected Final Harbin Number: 22.8878
Projected Finish:
Key Game: vs. Buckeye Valley (Oct. 18)
There’s going to be a lot of points at stake when Academy welcomes the Barons in for their Senior Night. Much like their rest of their games, the Vikings should be the favorites in this one and are expected to lock up an undefeated regular season.
(4) Ironton Fighting Tigers
Current Record: 5-1
Projected Final Record: 9-1
Projected Final Harbin Number: 29.8810
Projected Finish: 1st
Key Game: at Fairland (Oct. 11)
Ironton will be heavy favorites in their final three games. And while both Portsmouth is just as big of a game as Fairland, the difference is the amount points at stake for the Harbin rankings. The Dragons carry a lot of points and give them a big boost of points to insure a top place finish.
(5) Union Local Jets
Current Record: 7-0
Projected Final Record: 8-2
Projected Final Harbin Number: 17.3873
Projected Finish:
Key Game: vs. St. Clairsville (Oct. 11)
The Jets are underdogs in two of their final three games. This Friday's game against the Red Devils will be a good gauge of where they stand as they head down the stretch. A good performance against St. Clairsville could change their odds against Barnesville in week 10.
(6) Barnesville Shamrocks
Current Record: 7-0
Projected Final Record: 10-0
Projected Final Harbin Number: 24.8075
Projected Finish:
Key Game: vs. Union Local (Oct. 25)
The Shamrocks will have a lot on the line in week 10 against the Jets. A win will guarantee a 2nd place finish and two home games in the opening rounds. They should be the favorites in all their final games, but Union Local will be their biggest challenge since playing Fort Frye in week 1.
(7) Amanda-Clearcreek Aces
Current Record: 4-3
Projected Final Record: 5-5
Projected Final Harbin Number: 12.8000
Projected Finish: 13th
Key Game: at Fairfield Union (Oct. 18)
The two close losses to Linden McKinley and Hamilton Township proved to be crucial for the Aces, as their chances of a top 8 finish are looking less likely. They'll be underdogs against Logan Elm and Fairfield Union. But they are capable of beating the Falcons and could bump themselves up a couple spots in the final rankings.
(8) Nelsonville-York Buckeyes
Current Record: 5-2
Projected Final Record: 7-3
Projected Final Harbin Number: 14.6000
Projected Finish: 11th
Key Game: vs. Athens (Oct. 25)
The Buckeyes really hurt themselves with their week 5 loss to Waterford, and is probably why they're going to be on the road in week 11. They can make up for it if they can pull off a week 10 victory against Athens. A win would give them the TVC title and a first round home game.
(9) Portsmouth Trojans
Current Record: 5-2
Projected Final Record: 7-3
Projected Final Harbin Number: 16.5714
Projected Finish: 8th
Key Game: vs. Ironton (Oct. 25)
The Trojans should be favorites in their games leading up to their yearly rivalry game against Ironton. This game will be an important test to see where Portsmouth stands with the playoff kicking off the following week. The Trojans should manage to secure a first-round playoff game despite being projected to lose to Ironton in the final week.
(10) West Muskingum Tornadoes
Current Record: 4-2
Projected Final Record: 7-2
Projected Final Harbin Number: 16.6666
Projected Finish: 7th
Key Game: at Meadowbrook (Oct. 25)
The Tornadoes should close the season out with 5-straight wins and a first round home game. But just to make sure they do, they need to beat rival Meadowbook in week 10 to secure a bunch of points and ready themselves for the playoffs.
(11) Piketon Redstreaks
Current Record: 4-3
Projected Final Record: 7-3
Projected Final Harbin Number: 14.6500
Projected Finish: 10
Key Game: at Adena (Oct. 18)
The Redstreaks win against Paint Valley last week put them firmly in postseason play. The schedule is favorable the rest of the way, as they should be the favorites in all of them. Adena will be the big one the rest of the way because they have the most computer points available to accumulate.
(12) Africentric Nubians
Current Record: 4-3
Projected Final Record: 7-3
Projected Final Harbin Number: 16.2000
Projected Finish: 9th
Key Game: vs. Eastmoor Academy (Oct. 25)
Africentric are in but where they end up is totally in their hands. They're a favorite against Columbus South and Independence. But their final game against Eastmoor should be a stiffer challenge and will bring in a good chunk of computer points to end the season.
(13) Zane Trace Pioneers
Current Record: 4-3
Projected Final Record: 5-5
Projected Final Harbin Number: 9.7000
Projected Finish: 15
Key Game: at Zane Trace (Oct. 25)
The Pioneers should make the cut for the final 16 spots with a win over a hapless Southeastern team. But after seeing Piketon upset Paint Valley, the week 10 showdown between these two teams could mean the Pioneers are looking to get an upset of their own and a higher seed.
(14) Wellston Rockets
Current Record: 5-2
Projected Final Record: 6-4
Projected Final Harbin Number: 9.1500
Projected Finish: Out
Key Game: at Meigs (Oct. 18)
Because the Rockets are going to get so little second level points in the final weeks, they'll have to help themselves if they want to get into the playoffs. Their week 9 matchup against the Marauders will be the make-or-break moment of the season for them.
(15) Coal Grove Hornets
Current Record: 4-2
Projected Final Record: 5-4
Projected Final Harbin Number: 9.8601
Projected Finish: 14
Key Game: vs. Rock Hill (Oct. 25)
Coal Grove is likely guaranteed a spot in the postseason with a win against South Point. However, they can improve their position in the rankings with a week 10 win over the Redmen, who carry a lot of Harbin points. A win against their rivals could vault them to the 12th seed.
(16) Meadowbrook Colts
Current Record: 4-3
Projected Final Record: 5-5
Projected Final Harbin Number: 9.2176
Projected Finish: 16th
Key Game: at Maysville (Oct. 18)
The Colts should hang on for the final spot in the playoffs, permitting they beat Maysville. They will be underdogs against New Lexington and West Muskingum. An upset win against either team would greatly improve their position in the final rankings, but those chances are slim.
(17) Northwest Mohawks
Current Record: 4-3
Projected Final Record: 5-5
Projected Final Harbin Number: 6.2000
Projected Finish: Out
Key Game: at Portsmouth West (Oct. 11)
The Mohawks will need to pick up two wins in the final weeks to get to week 11. They'll be heavy underdogs against Waverly and West. This week's game against the Senators should give a definite answer as to whether or not they can make it.
(18) Worthington Christian Warriors
Current Record: 3-4
Projected Final Record: 4-6
Projected Final Harbin Number: 7.7000
Projected Finish: Out
Key Game: at Grove City Christian (Oct. 18)
The Warriors have a tough road ahead of them to make the playoffs. They'll need to win two of their final three games to slide into the postseason. They should be favored against Bexley in week 10, but they will be underdogs in their other two games.
(19) Wheelersburg Pirates
Current Record: 3-4
Projected Final Record: 6-4
Projected Final Harbin Number: 13.4153
Projected Finish: 12
Key Game: at Portsmouth West (Oct. 25)
The Pirates took a beating in the early half of their schedule, but things should be looking up the rest of the way. They are favored in their last three games and should get a nice batch of computer points with wins over Waverly and West. The game against the Senators should be a battle for first place in the SOC II.
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