Just 3 games back.
The Cincinnati Reds are 47-50 heading into the second half of the season, but they are just 3 games back of the third wild card team.
The team batting average is no longer last in the National League. The Reds are hitting .231 as a team, all the way up from .229.
Understanding why the Reds’ team batting average is as bad as the Jonas Brothers current record sales is pretty easy. Jake Fraley leads the team with a .277 average among players with 170 or more at-bats.
Jonathan India has gone from around the Mendoza Line to .275 but every other regular player is batting .256 (Elly De La Cruz) or less.
The Reds have slugged 108 home runs which is 12th best in baseball but that’s due to a recent surge. Cincinnati has 5 players in double digits for home runs, but that is somewhat misleading.
De La Cruz leads the team with 17, Jeimer Candelario 16, Spencer Steer 15, and both Tyler Stephenson and Will Benson had 10 each.
Stephenson has managed to get healthy and his production has improved. Benson is batting on the interstate with a .190 average and is second on the team with 118 strikeouts. De La Cruz has a team-high 127 whiffs in 360 at-bats while Benson has racked up his total in 258 trips to the plate.
The Reds have had a history of power hitters, generally on the corners at first and third bases and then in left field and right fields.
But Joey Votto, Adam Dunn, Jay Bruce and Eugenio Suarez are no longer playing baseball except Suarez who is currently with Arizona. Suarez hit 49 dingers in 2019 but he injured his shoulder diving into the shallow end of his swimming pool and has never been the same.
Rece Hinds has exploded onto the scene with 5 home runs in his first 7 games. He has 26 at-bats, 11 runs batted in and a .423 batting average.
The key here is that Hinds must avoid be the second coming of Aristides Aquino. But Hinds has a more consistent and productive history than Aquino who was basically a flash in the pan.
It was Aquino who set records for the most home runs in an MLB player’s first 12, 14, 16, 17 and 22 games, tied for most home runs in an MLB player’s first 20 games and the first MLB rookie and first Reds’ player to homer in three consecutive innings.
Aquino hit 19 home runs with 47 RBIs in 56 games as a rookie and finished with 41 total career home runs in 244 games with a .211 batting average and 108 runs batted in.
He also struck out 255 times in 686 at-bats. Looks like he’d fit right in with this year’s team.
The Reds signed Frankie Montas to lead the starting rotation and he’s 4-7. With a one-year deal, look for him to be moved by the trading deadline.
Speaking of starting pitching, Nick Lodolo has been the team’s best pitcher but he’s back on the disabled list for the third time this year. The next most consistent pitcher is Andrew Abbot while Hunter Greene is starting to be more consistent.
Alexis Diaz leads the bullpen with 19 saves but he has been shaky as evident of his 4.33 ERA and 1-3 record. The rest of the bullpen has been up and down and look for one or more relievers to be traded with Lucas Sims, Brent Suter. Fernando Cruz and Nick Martinez on the trading block.
The Reds made a strong push last season for the playoffs and weren’t eliminated until the final week. There is enough talent to make the playoffs and even make some noise, but it’s going to require a more productive offense than the first half of the season.
The defense has been good with a handful of exceptions. De La Cruz — who has a rifle arm but is guilty of 17 errors to lead the team — is looking more like an outfielder. Candelario has 11 errors and Noelvi Marte had 5 errors in just 14 games.
The best defensive shortstop is Matt McLain but he has missed the entire season due to shoulder surgery and won’t be back until August at the earliest if at all. Christian Encarnacion-Strand was supposed to be a big power hitter but is out for the year due to right hand surgery.
Leadoff hitter and solid defensive center fielder T.J. Friedl has been injured 3 different times and is still on the disabled list.
Although the Reds are still in the hunt and have good talent, it’s hard to have confidence in this team.
After all, as Reds fans, we’ve seen this show before.
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